Mortality and its predictors in abdominal injury across sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal injuries exert a significant impact on global morbidity and mortality. The aggregation of mortality data and its determinants across different regions holds immense importance for designing informed healthcare strategies. Hence, this study assessed the pooled mortality rate and its predictors across sub-Saharan Africa. METHOD: This meta-analysis employed a comprehensive search across multiple electronic databases including PubMed, Africa Index Medicus, Science Direct, and Hinari, complemented by a search of Google Scholar. Subsequently, data were extracted into an Excel format. The compiled dataset was then exported to STATA 17 statistical software for analysis. Utilizing the Dersimonian-Laird method, a random-effect model was employed to estimate the pooled mortality rate and its associated predictors. Heterogeneity was evaluated via the I2 test, while publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot along with Egger's, and Begg's tests. RESULT: This meta-analysis, which includes 33 full-text studies, revealed a pooled mortality rate of 9.67% (95% CI; 7.81, 11.52) in patients with abdominal injuries across sub-Saharan Africa with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 87.21%). This review also identified significant predictors of mortality. As a result, the presence of shock upon presentation demonstrated 6.19 times (95% CI; 3.70-10.38) higher odds of mortality, followed by ICU admission (AOR: 5.20, 95% CI; 2.38-11.38), blunt abdominal injury (AOR: 8.18, 95% CI; 4.97-13.45), post-operative complications (AOR: 8.17, 95% CI; 4.97-13.44), and the performance of damage control surgery (AOR: 4.62, 95% CI; 1.85-11.52). CONCLUSION: Abdominal injury mortality is notably high in sub-Saharan Africa. Shock at presentation, ICU admission, blunt abdominal injury, postoperative complications, and use of damage control surgery predict mortality. Tailored strategies to address these predictors could significantly reduce deaths in the region.

Prevención cardiovascular en la diabetes mellitus. ¿Es adecuado hablar de riesgo moderado o intermedio? / Cardiovascular prevention in diabetes mellitus. Is it appropriate to speak of moderate or intermediate risk?

La diabetes, especialmente la tipo 2, está considerada como una situación de riesgo de enfermedad cardiovascular aterosclerosa (ECVA). Los sujetos con diabetes tipo 2 tienen una mortalidad por ECVA 3 veces superior a la de la población general, atribuida a la hiperglucemia y a la frecuente asociación de otros factores de riesgo cardiovascular, como la dislipidemia aterogénica. Numerosas sociedades científicas han establecido una clasificación de riesgo de ECVA en la diabetes basada en 3 grados (moderado, alto y muy alto). Los objetivos del control de la dislipidemia están claramente definidos y aceptados, y varían dependiendo del riesgo cardiovascular previamente establecido. En el riesgo moderado o intermedio, las guías proponen una intervención menos intensiva, manteniendo cifras de c-LDL<100mg/dL y de c-no-HDL<130mg/dL, y esperar 10 años hasta alcanzar la categoría de alto riesgo para iniciar un tratamiento más intensivo. Sin embargo, durante la década de seguimiento preconizada en las guías, el depósito de colesterol en la pared arterial va aumentando, facilitando el desarrollo de una placa de ateroma inestable e inflamatoria, y el desarrollo de ECVA. Alternativamente, se podría considerar desde el inicio que la diabetes conlleva una situación de alto riesgo y el objetivo debería ser c-LDL<70mg/dL. Además, mantener cifras de c-LDL<70mg/dL contribuye a reducir y estabilizar la placa de ateroma, evitando o disminuyendo episodios de mortalidad por ECVA durante esos años de evolución de la diabetes. ¿Deberíamos mantener los objetivos propuestos en los sujetos con diabetes y riesgo moderado durante una década hasta alcanzar la fase de alto riesgo cardiovascular o, por el contrario, adoptar desde el inicio una postura más intensiva buscando reducir el riesgo cardiovascular en la mayoría de los pacientes con diabetes? ¿Es mejor esperar o prevenir con medidas terapéuticas efectivas desde el primer momento? (AU)

Diabetes, especially type 2, is considered a risk situation for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Subjects with diabetes type 2 have a mortality rate due to ASCVD 3 times higher than that found in the general population, attributed to hyperglycemia and the frequent association of other cardiovascular risk factors, such as atherogenic dyslipidemia. Numerous scientific societies have established a risk classification for ASCVD in diabetes based on 3 degrees (moderate, high and very high). The objectives of dyslipidemia control are clearly defined and accepted, and vary depending on the previously established cardiovascular risk. In moderate or intermediate risk, the guidelines propose a less intensive intervention, maintaining LDL-C levels<100mg/dL and NO-HDL-C levels<130mg/dL, and waiting 10 years until reaching the high-risk category to initiate more intensive treatment. However, during the decade of follow-up recommended in the guidelines, cholesterol deposition in the arterial wall increases, facilitating the development of an unstable and inflammatory atheromatous plaque, and the development of ASCVD. Alternatively, diabetes could be considered from the outset to be a high-risk situation and the goal should be LDL-C<70mg/dL. Furthermore, maintaining LDL-C levels<70mg/dL contributes to reducing and stabilizing atheromatous plaque, avoiding or reducing mortality episodes due to ASCVD during those years of diabetes evolution. Should we maintain the proposed objectives in subjects with diabetes and moderate risk for a decade until reaching the high cardiovascular risk phase or, on the contrary, should we adopt a more intensive stance from the beginning seeking to reduce cardiovascular risk in the majority of patients with diabetes? Is it better to wait or prevent with effective therapeutic measures from the first moment? (AU)

Serum klotho levels and mortality patterns in frail individuals: unraveling the u-shaped association.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, a clinical syndrome intricately linked with the aging process, stands as a harbinger of numerous adverse outcomes, most notably mortality. This study aimed to elucidate the association between serum α-klotho concentration and mortality patterns, including all-cause and cause-specific mortality, in patients with frailty. METHODS: The study employed Cox proportional hazard models, smoothed curve fitting, and supplementary analyses, encompassing threshold effect analysis, subgroup and sensitivity analyses, to explore the relationship between α-klotho levels and mortality, including all-cause, CVD, and cancer-related mortality. RESULTS: Among the 2,608 frail individuals (mean age: 60.78 [SD 10.48] years; 59.89% female), the mortality stood at 25.35% during a median follow-up period of 6.95 years. Both unadjusted and adjusted models revealed a significant inverse association between higher serum α-klotho levels and the risk of all-cause and CVD-related mortality ([mean(95% CI) 0.68 (0.55, 0.83)] for all-cause mortality; [mean(95% CI) 0.48 (0.32, 0.74)] for CVD-related mortality, all P for trend < 0.001). Notably, log2-klotho displayed a U-shaped correlation with all-cause mortality and cancer mortality, characterized by thresholds of 9.48 and 9.55, respectively. The robustness of these findings was consistently supported by subgroup and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: This study unveils a U shaped association between serum α-klotho levels and both all-cause and cancer-related mortality among middle-aged and elderly individuals with frailty in the United States. The identified serum α-klotho thresholds, at 714.8 pg/ml for all-cause mortality and 750.6 pg/ml for cancer-related mortality, hold promise as potential targets for interventions aimed at mitigating the risks of premature death and cancer within this vulnerable population.

Beta-Blockers after Myocardial Infarction and Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Most trials that have shown a benefit of beta-blocker treatment after myocardial infarction included patients with large myocardial infarctions and were conducted in an era before modern biomarker-based diagnosis of myocardial infarction and treatment with percutaneous coronary intervention, antithrombotic agents, high-intensity statins, and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system antagonists. METHODS: In a parallel-group, open-label trial performed at 45 centers in Sweden, Estonia, and New Zealand, we randomly assigned patients with an acute myocardial infarction who had undergone coronary angiography and had a left ventricular ejection fraction of at least 50% to receive either long-term treatment with a beta-blocker (metoprolol or bisoprolol) or no beta-blocker treatment. The primary end point was a composite of death from any cause or new myocardial infarction. RESULTS: From September 2017 through May 2023, a total of 5020 patients were enrolled (95.4% of whom were from Sweden). The median follow-up was 3.5 years (interquartile range, 2.2 to 4.7). A primary end-point event occurred in 199 of 2508 patients (7.9%) in the beta-blocker group and in 208 of 2512 patients (8.3%) in the no-beta-blocker group (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.79 to 1.16; P = 0.64). Beta-blocker treatment did not appear to lead to a lower cumulative incidence of the secondary end points (death from any cause, 3.9% in the beta-blocker group and 4.1% in the no-beta-blocker group; death from cardiovascular causes, 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively; myocardial infarction, 4.5% and 4.7%; hospitalization for atrial fibrillation, 1.1% and 1.4%; and hospitalization for heart failure, 0.8% and 0.9%). With regard to safety end points, hospitalization for bradycardia, second- or third-degree atrioventricular block, hypotension, syncope, or implantation of a pacemaker occurred in 3.4% of the patients in the beta-blocker group and in 3.2% of those in the no-beta-blocker group; hospitalization for asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 0.6% and 0.6%, respectively; and hospitalization for stroke in 1.4% and 1.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with acute myocardial infarction who underwent early coronary angiography and had a preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (≥50%), long-term beta-blocker treatment did not lead to a lower risk of the composite primary end point of death from any cause or new myocardial infarction than no beta-blocker use. (Funded by the Swedish Research Council and others; REDUCE-AMI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03278509.).

Microaxial Flow Pump or Standard Care in Infarct-Related Cardiogenic Shock.

BACKGROUND: The effects of temporary mechanical circulatory support with a microaxial flow pump on mortality among patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) complicated by cardiogenic shock remains unclear. METHODS: In an international, multicenter, randomized trial, we assigned patients with STEMI and cardiogenic shock to receive a microaxial flow pump (Impella CP) plus standard care or standard care alone. The primary end point was death from any cause at 180 days. A composite safety end point was severe bleeding, limb ischemia, hemolysis, device failure, or worsening aortic regurgitation. RESULTS: A total of 360 patients underwent randomization, of whom 355 were included in the final analysis (179 in the microaxial-flow-pump group and 176 in the standard-care group). The median age of the patients was 67 years, and 79.2% were men. Death from any cause occurred in 82 of 179 patients (45.8%) in the microaxial-flow-pump group and in 103 of 176 patients (58.5%) in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.99; P = 0.04). A composite safety end-point event occurred in 43 patients (24.0%) in the microaxial-flow-pump group and in 11 (6.2%) in the standard-care group (relative risk, 4.74; 95% CI, 2.36 to 9.55). Renal-replacement therapy was administered to 75 patients (41.9%) in the microaxial-flow-pump group and to 47 patients (26.7%) in the standard-care group (relative risk, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.27 to 3.09). CONCLUSIONS: The routine use of a microaxial flow pump with standard care in the treatment of patients with STEMI-related cardiogenic shock led to a lower risk of death from any cause at 180 days than standard care alone. The incidence of a composite of adverse events was higher with the use of the microaxial flow pump. (Funded by the Danish Heart Foundation and Abiomed; DanGer Shock ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01633502.).

Overall Survival with Adjuvant Pembrolizumab in Renal-Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant pembrolizumab therapy after surgery for renal-cell carcinoma was approved on the basis of a significant improvement in disease-free survival in the KEYNOTE-564 trial. Whether the results regarding overall survival from the third prespecified interim analysis of the trial would also favor pembrolizumab was uncertain. METHODS: In this phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned (in a 1:1 ratio) participants with clear-cell renal-cell carcinoma who had an increased risk of recurrence after surgery to receive pembrolizumab (at a dose of 200 mg) or placebo every 3 weeks for up to 17 cycles (approximately 1 year) or until recurrence, the occurrence of unacceptable toxic effects, or withdrawal of consent. A significant improvement in disease-free survival according to investigator assessment (the primary end point) was shown previously. Overall survival was the key secondary end point. Safety was a secondary end point. RESULTS: A total of 496 participants were assigned to receive pembrolizumab and 498 to receive placebo. As of September 15, 2023, the median follow-up was 57.2 months. The disease-free survival benefit was consistent with that in previous analyses (hazard ratio for recurrence or death, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.87). A significant improvement in overall survival was observed with pembrolizumab as compared with placebo (hazard ratio for death, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.87; P = 0.005). The estimated overall survival at 48 months was 91.2% in the pembrolizumab group, as compared with 86.0% in the placebo group; the benefit was consistent across key subgroups. Pembrolizumab was associated with a higher incidence of serious adverse events of any cause (20.7%, vs. 11.5% with placebo) and of grade 3 or 4 adverse events related to pembrolizumab or placebo (18.6% vs. 1.2%). No deaths were attributed to pembrolizumab therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Adjuvant pembrolizumab was associated with a significant and clinically meaningful improvement in overall survival, as compared with placebo, among participants with clear-cell renal-cell carcinoma at increased risk for recurrence after surgery. (Funded by Merck Sharp and Dohme, a subsidiary of Merck; KEYNOTE-564 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03142334.).

Omitting Axillary Dissection in Breast Cancer with Sentinel-Node Metastases.

BACKGROUND: Trials evaluating the omission of completion axillary-lymph-node dissection in patients with clinically node-negative breast cancer and sentinel-lymph-node metastases have been compromised by limited statistical power, uncertain nodal radiotherapy target volumes, and a scarcity of data on relevant clinical subgroups. METHODS: We conducted a noninferiority trial in which patients with clinically node-negative primary T1 to T3 breast cancer (tumor size, T1, ≤20 mm; T2, 21 to 50 mm; and T3, >50 mm in the largest dimension) with one or two sentinel-node macrometastases (metastasis size, >2 mm in the largest dimension) were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to completion axillary-lymph-node dissection or its omission (sentinel-node biopsy only). Adjuvant treatment and radiation therapy were used in accordance with national guidelines. The primary end point was overall survival. We report here the per-protocol and modified intention-to-treat analyses of the prespecified secondary end point of recurrence-free survival. To show noninferiority of sentinel-node biopsy only, the upper boundary of the confidence interval for the hazard ratio for recurrence or death had to be below 1.44. RESULTS: Between January 2015 and December 2021, a total of 2766 patients were enrolled across five countries. The per-protocol population included 2540 patients, of whom 1335 were assigned to undergo sentinel-node biopsy only and 1205 to undergo completion axillary-lymph-node dissection (dissection group). Radiation therapy including nodal target volumes was administered to 1192 of 1326 patients (89.9%) in the sentinel-node biopsy-only group and to 1058 of 1197 (88.4%) in the dissection group. The median follow-up was 46.8 months (range, 1.5 to 94.5). Overall, 191 patients had recurrence or died. The estimated 5-year recurrence-free survival was 89.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87.5 to 91.9) in the sentinel-node biopsy-only group and 88.7% (95% CI, 86.3 to 91.1) in the dissection group, with a country-adjusted hazard ratio for recurrence or death of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.19), which was significantly (P<0.001) below the prespecified noninferiority margin. CONCLUSIONS: The omission of completion axillary-lymph-node dissection was noninferior to the more extensive surgery in patients with clinically node-negative breast cancer who had sentinel-node macrometastases, most of whom received nodal radiation therapy. (Funded by the Swedish Research Council and others; SENOMAC ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02240472.).

Trial of Early Minimally Invasive Removal of Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Trials of surgical evacuation of supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhages have generally shown no functional benefit. Whether early minimally invasive surgical removal would result in better outcomes than medical management is not known. METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized trial involving patients with an acute intracerebral hemorrhage, we assessed surgical removal of the hematoma as compared with medical management. Patients who had a lobar or anterior basal ganglia hemorrhage with a hematoma volume of 30 to 80 ml were assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, within 24 hours after the time that they were last known to be well, to minimally invasive surgical removal of the hematoma plus guideline-based medical management (surgery group) or to guideline-based medical management alone (control group). The primary efficacy end point was the mean score on the utility-weighted modified Rankin scale (range, 0 to 1, with higher scores indicating better outcomes, according to patients' assessment) at 180 days, with a prespecified threshold for posterior probability of superiority of 0.975 or higher. The trial included rules for adaptation of enrollment criteria on the basis of hemorrhage location. A primary safety end point was death within 30 days after enrollment. RESULTS: A total of 300 patients were enrolled, of whom 30.7% had anterior basal ganglia hemorrhages and 69.3% had lobar hemorrhages. After 175 patients had been enrolled, an adaptation rule was triggered, and only persons with lobar hemorrhages were enrolled. The mean score on the utility-weighted modified Rankin scale at 180 days was 0.458 in the surgery group and 0.374 in the control group (difference, 0.084; 95% Bayesian credible interval, 0.005 to 0.163; posterior probability of superiority of surgery, 0.981). The mean between-group difference was 0.127 (95% Bayesian credible interval, 0.035 to 0.219) among patients with lobar hemorrhages and -0.013 (95% Bayesian credible interval, -0.147 to 0.116) among those with anterior basal ganglia hemorrhages. The percentage of patients who had died by 30 days was 9.3% in the surgery group and 18.0% in the control group. Five patients (3.3%) in the surgery group had postoperative rebleeding and neurologic deterioration. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients in whom surgery could be performed within 24 hours after an acute intracerebral hemorrhage, minimally invasive hematoma evacuation resulted in better functional outcomes at 180 days than those with guideline-based medical management. The effect of surgery appeared to be attributable to intervention for lobar hemorrhages. (Funded by Nico; ENRICH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02880878.).

Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer.

Importance: The association of tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) abundance in breast cancer tissue with cancer recurrence and death in patients with early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) who are not treated with adjuvant or neoadjuvant chemotherapy is unclear. Objective: To study the association of TIL abundance in breast cancer tissue with survival among patients with early-stage TNBC who were treated with locoregional therapy but no chemotherapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient-level data from 13 participating centers in North America (Rochester, Minnesota; Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada), Europe (Paris, Lyon, and Villejuif, France; Amsterdam and Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Milan, Padova, and Genova, Italy; Gothenburg, Sweden), and Asia (Tokyo, Japan; Seoul, Korea), including 1966 participants diagnosed with TNBC between 1979 and 2017 (with follow-up until September 27, 2021) who received treatment with surgery with or without radiotherapy but no adjuvant or neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Exposure: TIL abundance in breast tissue from resected primary tumors. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was invasive disease-free survival [iDFS]. Secondary outcomes were recurrence-free survival [RFS], survival free of distant recurrence [distant RFS, DRFS], and overall survival. Associations were assessed using a multivariable Cox model stratified by participating center. Results: This study included 1966 patients with TNBC (median age, 56 years [IQR, 39-71]; 55% had stage I TNBC). The median TIL level was 15% (IQR, 5%-40%). Four-hundred seventeen (21%) had a TIL level of 50% or more (median age, 41 years [IQR, 36-63]), and 1300 (66%) had a TIL level of less than 30% (median age, 59 years [IQR, 41-72]). Five-year DRFS for stage I TNBC was 94% (95% CI, 91%-96%) for patients with a TIL level of 50% or more, compared with 78% (95% CI, 75%-80%) for those with a TIL level of less than 30%; 5-year overall survival was 95% (95% CI, 92%-97%) for patients with a TIL level of 50% or more, compared with 82% (95% CI, 79%-84%) for those with a TIL level of less than 30%. At a median follow-up of 18 years, and after adjusting for age, tumor size, nodal status, histological grade, and receipt of radiotherapy, each 10% higher TIL increment was associated independently with improved iDFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.92 [0.89-0.94]), RFS (HR, 0.90 [0.87-0.92]), DRFS (HR, 0.87 [0.84-0.90]), and overall survival (0.88 [0.85-0.91]) (likelihood ratio test, P < 10e-6). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with early-stage TNBC who did not undergo adjuvant or neoadjuvant chemotherapy, breast cancer tissue with a higher abundance of TIL levels was associated with significantly better survival. These results suggest that breast tissue TIL abundance is a prognostic factor for patients with early-stage TNBC.

The Healthy Eating Index-2015 and All-Cause/Cause-Specific Mortality: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.

This meta-analysis was undertaken to determine the predictive value of Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2015 in all-cause, cancer-cause, and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-cause mortality. This review was registered with PROSPERO as CRD42023421585. PubMed and Web of Science were searched for articles published by September 15, 2023. The hazard ratio (HR) was calculated with exact confidence intervals (CIs) of 95%. Statistical heterogeneity among studies was measured by Cochran's Q test (χ2) and the I2 statistic. Eighteen published studies were finally identified in this meta-analysis. The results showed that the HEI-2015 was associated with all-cause mortality either as a categorical variable (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.82) or continuous variable (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.92). The HEI-2015 was also associated with cancer-cause mortality as categorical variable (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.83) or continuous variable (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.99). The categorical HEI-2015 was also independently correlated with decreasing CVD-cause mortality (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.87). A nonlinear dose-response relation between the HEI-2015 and all-cause mortality was found. In the linear dose-response analysis, the risk of mortality from cancer decreased by 0.42% per 1 score increment of the HEI-2015 and the risk of CVD-cause mortality decreased by 0.51% with the increment of the HEI-2015 per 1 score. Our analysis indicated a significant relationship between the HEI-2015 and all-cause, cancer-cause, and CVD-cause mortality.

Value of serum iron and urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in predicting the mortality of critically ill patients with sepsis.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the association of iron metabolism-related parameters with 60-day mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis. METHODS: Serum or urine concentrations of iron metabolism-related parameters on intensive care unit admission were measured in a prospective cohort of 133 eligible patients with sepsis according to the Sepsis-3 criteria, and these values were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors, categorized according to their 60-day survival status. Cox regression analyses were performed to examine the association between iron parameters and 60-day mortality. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to illustrate the differences in survival between different iron parameters. RESULTS: Of the 133 patients included in the study, 61 (45.8%) had died by day 60. After adjusting for confounding variables, higher concentrations of serum iron (cut-off 9.5 µmol/mL) and higher concentrations of urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL; cut-off 169.3 ng/mL) were associated with a significantly greater risk of death in the Cox regression analysis. These two biomarkers combined with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve to 0.85. DISCUSSION: These findings suggest that higher concentrations of serum iron and uNGAL are each associated with higher 60-day mortality, and they add significant accuracy to this prediction in combination with SOFA. Abbreviations: uNGAL: urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin; ICU: intensive care unit; SOFA: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; APACHE II: the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II; ELISA: enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; HR: hazard ratio; CIs: confidence intervals; WBC: white blood cell; TBIL: total bilirubin.

Is COVID-19 as Lethal as the Spanish Flu? The Australian Experience in 1919 and 2020 and the Role of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs).

We conducted a comparative historical study to interrogate Professor Peter Doherty's warning to Australians in April 2020 that 'COVID-19 is just as lethal as the Spanish flu'. We identified the epicentres of both pandemics, namely, metropolitan Sydney in 1919 and metropolitan Melbourne in 2020 and compared the lethality of the Spanish Flu and COVID-19 in these two cities. Lethality was measured by the number and rate of hospital admissions, death rates, age-specific death rates and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs). Using these measures, we demonstrated the strikingly different waves of infection, their severity at various points in time and the cumulative impact of the viruses by the end of our study period, i.e., 30 September in 1919 and 2020. Hospital admissions and deaths from the Spanish Flu in 1919 were more than 30 times higher than those for COVID-19 in 2020. The ASMR per 100,000 population for the Spanish Flu was 383 compared to 7 for COVID-19: The former was about 55 times higher than the latter. These results suggest that the Spanish Flu was more lethal than COVID-19. Professor Doherty's warning was perhaps taken seriously and that partly explains the findings of this study. Containing infection in 1919 and 2020 threw the burden on nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as 'protective sequestration' (quarantine), contact tracing, lockdowns and masks. It is likely that the persistent and detailed contact tracing scheme provides the best possible explanation for why NPIs in 2020 were more effective than in 1919 and therefore contributed to the lower lethality of the COVID-19 pandemic in its first year.

Microplastics and Nanoplastics in Atheromas and Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Microplastics and nanoplastics (MNPs) are emerging as a potential risk factor for cardiovascular disease in preclinical studies. Direct evidence that this risk extends to humans is lacking. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicenter, observational study involving patients who were undergoing carotid endarterectomy for asymptomatic carotid artery disease. The excised carotid plaque specimens were analyzed for the presence of MNPs with the use of pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, stable isotope analysis, and electron microscopy. Inflammatory biomarkers were assessed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and immunohistochemical assay. The primary end point was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from any cause among patients who had evidence of MNPs in plaque as compared with patients with plaque that showed no evidence of MNPs. RESULTS: A total of 304 patients were enrolled in the study, and 257 completed a mean (±SD) follow-up of 33.7±6.9 months. Polyethylene was detected in carotid artery plaque of 150 patients (58.4%), with a mean level of 21.7±24.5 µg per milligram of plaque; 31 patients (12.1%) also had measurable amounts of polyvinyl chloride, with a mean level of 5.2±2.4 µg per milligram of plaque. Electron microscopy revealed visible, jagged-edged foreign particles among plaque macrophages and scattered in the external debris. Radiographic examination showed that some of these particles included chlorine. Patients in whom MNPs were detected within the atheroma were at higher risk for a primary end-point event than those in whom these substances were not detected (hazard ratio, 4.53; 95% confidence interval, 2.00 to 10.27; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, patients with carotid artery plaque in which MNPs were detected had a higher risk of a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from any cause at 34 months of follow-up than those in whom MNPs were not detected. (Funded by Programmi di Ricerca Scientifica di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05900947.).

State-level variation in distribution of oxycodone and opioid-related deaths from 2000 to 2021: an ecological study of ARCOS and CDC WONDER data in the USA.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to characterise oxycodone's distribution and opioid-related overdoses in the USA by state from 2000 to 2021. DESIGN: This is an observational study. SETTING: More than 80 000 Americans died of an opioid overdose in 2021 as the USA continues to struggle with an opioid crisis. Prescription opioids play a substantial role, introducing patients to opioids and providing a supply of drugs that can be redirected to those seeking to misuse them. METHODS: The Drug Enforcement Administration annual summary reports from the Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System provided weights of oxycodone distributed per state by business type (pharmacies, hospitals and practitioners). Weights were converted to morphine milligram equivalents (MME) per capita and normalised for population. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research provided mortality data for heroin, other opioids, methadone, other synthetic narcotics and other/unspecified narcotics. RESULTS: There was a sharp 280.13% increase in total MME/person of oxycodone from 2000 to 2010, followed by a slower 54.34% decrease from 2010 to 2021. Florida (2007-2011), Delaware (2003-2020) and Tennessee (2012-2021) displayed consistent and substantial elevations in combined MME/person compared with other states. In the peak year (2010), there was a 15-fold difference between the highest and lowest states. MME/person from only pharmacies, which constituted >94% of the total, showed similar results. Hospitals in Alaska (2000-2001, 2008, 2010-2021), Colorado (2008-2021) and DC (2000-2011) distributed substantially more MME/person over many years compared with other states. Florida stood out in practitioner-distributed oxycodone, with an elevation of almost 15-fold the average state from 2006 to 2010. Opioid-related deaths increased +806% from 2000 to 2021, largely driven by heroin, other opioids and other synthetic narcotics. CONCLUSIONS: Oxycodone distribution across the USA showed marked differences between states and business types over time. Investigation of opioid policies in states of interest may provide insight for future actions to mitigate opioid misuse.

ADHD Pharmacotherapy and Mortality in Individuals With ADHD.

Importance: Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with increased risks of adverse health outcomes including premature death, but it is unclear whether ADHD pharmacotherapy influences the mortality risk. Objective: To investigate whether initiation of ADHD pharmacotherapy was associated with reduced mortality risk in individuals with ADHD. Design, Setting, and Participants: In an observational nationwide cohort study in Sweden applying the target trial emulation framework, we identified individuals aged 6 through 64 years with an incident diagnosis of ADHD from 2007 through 2018 and no ADHD medication dispensation prior to diagnosis. Follow-up started from ADHD diagnosis until death, emigration, 2 years after ADHD diagnosis, or December 31, 2020, whichever came first. Exposures: ADHD medication initiation was defined as dispensing of medication within 3 months of diagnosis. Main Outcomes and Measures: We assessed all-cause mortality within 2 years of ADHD diagnosis, as well as natural-cause (eg, physical conditions) and unnatural-cause mortality (eg, unintentional injuries, suicide, and accidental poisonings). Results: Of 148 578 individuals with ADHD (61 356 females [41.3%]), 84 204 (56.7%) initiated ADHD medication. The median age at diagnosis was 17.4 years (IQR, 11.6-29.1 years). The 2-year mortality risk was lower in the initiation treatment strategy group (39.1 per 10 000 individuals) than in the noninitiation treatment strategy group (48.1 per 10 000 individuals), with a risk difference of -8.9 per 10 000 individuals (95% CI, -17.3 to -0.6). ADHD medication initiation was associated with significantly lower rate of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.88) and unnatural-cause mortality (2-year mortality risk, 25.9 per 10 000 individuals vs 33.3 per 10 000 individuals; risk difference, -7.4 per 10 000 individuals; 95% CI, -14.2 to -0.5; HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.86), but not natural-cause mortality (2-year mortality risk, 13.1 per 10 000 individuals vs 14.7 per 10 000 individuals; risk difference, -1.6 per 10 000 individuals; 95% CI, -6.4 to 3.2; HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.05). Conclusions and Relevance: Among individuals diagnosed with ADHD, medication initiation was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality, particularly for death due to unnatural causes.